🧠 Why Was Oates Believed?
Existing fears: Deep Protestant fear of Catholicism stretching back generations. Memories of Mary I's burnings, the Spanish Armada (1588), the Gunpowder Plot (1605). Catholics were associated with foreign tyranny, torture, and plotting against Protestant England.
James's conversion: Duke of York (heir to throne) had been known as a Catholic since his resignation under the Test Act in 1673. Terrified Protestants that a Catholic king was coming — and Oates's plot seemed to explain how it would happen.
French alliance: Charles's treaties with Louis XIV (Catholic France) looked deeply suspicious. The Secret Treaty of Dover (1670) was rumoured, if not yet fully known. Charles's behaviour seemed to confirm he was in league with Catholic powers.
Coleman letters: Genuine letters from Edward Coleman (James's secretary) to French Jesuits, discussing Catholic plans. When discovered, they seemed to confirm Oates's allegations — though they actually discussed promoting tolerance, not assassination.
Godfrey's murder: Sir Edmund Berry Godfrey — the magistrate who had taken Oates's original deposition — was found dead in a ditch in October 1678. Nobody knows who killed him. Protestants immediately blamed Catholics. The murder created a climate of panic that made any accusation believable.