Conditional Probability

MathematicsAQAEdexcelGCSEUnit: Probability
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The basics

Probability That Depends on Context

Probability That Depends on Context

What's the chance of rain if it's cloudy? What's the probability a student passes an exam if they've been attending classes regularly? These situations involve conditional probability - where the likelihood of one event depends on whether another event has already occurred.

Conditional probability helps us make better predictions by considering additional information.

What is conditional probability?: The probability of one event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It restricts the sample space to only the outcomes where the condition is met.
Key terms

Mathematics glossary

What is conditional probability?
The probability of one event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It restricts the sample space to only the outcomes where the condition is met.
What does the vertical bar | mean in P(A|B)?
It means 'given that'. P(A|B) is read as 'the probability of A given B'. The event after the bar is the condition — it is already known to have occurred.
Exam tip

Earn the mark scheme marks

Exam Tips

  • Identify the condition - what's given (after the |)
  • Reduce your focus - only consider outcomes where the condition is true
  • Use tables and diagrams - they make conditional probability clearer
  • Check your answer - conditional probabilities should still be between 0 and 1
  • Practice with real contexts - medical tests, weather, games

Now try it yourself

Quiz · Question 1 of 14

What does the notation P(A|B) mean?

Tap an answer to check it

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