Natural vs Human Causes — Key Comparisons

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Natural vs Human Causes — Key Comparisons

Factor Natural Causes Human Causes
Speed of change Over thousands to millions of years Over decades — 100× faster than natural post-ice-age change
Direction Both warming and cooling (volcanoes cool; orbital cycles drive both) Consistently warming since ~1950
IPCC attribution Accounts for less than 10% of post-1950 warming Dominant driver of all post-1950 warming ("unequivocal")
CO₂ signature Natural CO₂ range: 180–280 ppm over 800,000 years CO₂ now 421 ppm — 50% above natural maximum in 3 million years
Example Milankovitch cycles: 20,000–100,000-year orbital shifts; Pinatubo 1991: 0.5°C cooling for 1–2 years Fossil fuel burning: 38 billion tonnes CO₂/year; deforestation: 15% of emissions

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